Update on Monsoon 2023 over the Indian Subcontinent based on NCEP GFS Analysis of 1st September 2023 / 0000UTC upto 10th September 2023
1. Prognosis of Synoptic Situation over Indian Subcontinent.
Axis of Monsoon Trough (AMT) at mean sea level runs along the foothills of the Himalayas during the initial days. Cyclonic circulation over Northwest Bay of Bengal organises into a Low Pressure Area off Odisha and Coastal Andhra Pradesh on 5th September 2023. It moves West-Northwestwards along the AMT towards Northwest Madhya Pradesh and adjoining West Uttar Pradesh. Another Low Pressure Area forms off Odisha Coast on 11th September 2023. Sub Tropical Ridge at 200hPa shifts southwards during this period nearly to 25DegN latitude.
Andhra Pradesh and Telangana experience moderate rainfall activity up to 5th September 2023. With the formation of Low Pressure Area, rainfall activity increases over the East and then the Central parts of India. Subdued rainfall activity likely over remaining parts of the country.
2. Rainfall Distribution over India
Northwest and West India:
Rainfall will be generally subdued during this period.
Moderate fairly widespread rainfall / thunderstorm & lightning with isolated heavy rainfall will occur over Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Gangetic West Bengal and Odisha.
Moderate fairly widespread rainfall / thunderstorm & lightning with isolated heavy rainfall will occur over Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh.
Moderate scattered rainfall with isolated heavy spells will occur over #amilNadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Interior Karnataka, Kerala Rayalaseema, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.
The ongoing Asia Cup cricket matches will get affected by the rains mainly up to 5th September 2023.
3. Animations of MSLP, Winds at 850hPa and Winds at 200hPa as shown by the NCEP GFS Analysis for the period upto 10th September 2023 over Eurasia and 24Hour Rainfall over Indian Subcontinent are uploaded for better appreciation by the readers.
Regards & Best Wishes.