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|#PreMonsoon2026 – Indian Subcontinent | GFS Analysis | Initialized with #NCEP #GFS 04th April 2026 / 0000 UTC | Valid till 14th April 2026 / 0000 UTC | Inputs from #IMD, New Delhi |

⏱️ Synoptic Features:

🔺Western Disturbance lies over North & Central Pakistan and neighbouring regions of India as cyclonic circulation in middle tropospheric levels. It affects North and Northwest India between 05th-06th April. 

🔺Another Western Disturbance affects Northwest India between 07th-09th April, 2026. 

🔺Remnants of these systems are seen over Northeast India and adjoining Bangladesh between 07th-08th and 09th-11th April 2026.

🔺Subtropical Westerly Jet Stream with core winds greater 90 knots at 200hPa reaches as South as 20°S as it meanders eastwards along with deep amplitude westerly trough across North, Central and Northeast India, between 05th-10th April, generally to the rear of the WDs providing upper air diversion to the low level circulations.

🔺Upper-air cyclonic circulations lie over Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and North Interior Karnataka at 850hPa mainly during the initial part of the forecast period.

🌧️ Rainfall Outlook:

🔺North & North West India: Fairly-widespread light/moderate rainfall/snowfall with scattered thunderstorm/hailstorm over Western Himalayas during 05th-06th and 07th-09th April with scattered heavy spells over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh and Himachal Pradesh.

🔺Scattered rainfall with isolated thunderstorm, occurs over Punjab, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and West UP during 05th-06th and 07th-09th April. Second spell causes scattered heavy spells over North Rajasthan, Haryana and adjoining Delhi NCR.

🔺North East India: Fairly widespread light/moderate rain/thunderstorms over Nepal, Sub Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and Bhutan with scattered heavy spells over Assam and Arunachal Pradesh during 07th-08th April. During 09th-11th April the activity spread to Bangladesh and adjoining Gangetic West Bengal with scattered heavy spells. 

🔺Central India: Scattered moderate rainfall  will occur over Madhya Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh during 05th-06th April.

🔺East India: Moderate rain/thunderstorms over Gangetic West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Bangladesh during 09th-11th April..

🔺South Peninsular India: Scattered light  rainfall will occur over Kerala and adjoining Tamil Nadu during 05th-07th and 11th-14th April.

🔺West India: No significant activity.

🌡️ Temperature Trends:

🔺 Minimum: 15-20°C over Plains of North, Northwest; 20-25°C West India, Indo Gangetic Plains, Central and South India, rising to 25-30°C during later part of the forecast period.

🔺 Maximum: 25-30°C over Plains of North, Northwest India; 30-35°C over West India, Indo Gangetic Plains, Central and South India with pockets of 35-40°C over Eastern Coast of India.

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