| GFS Analysis | Initialized with #NCEP #GFS 30th January 2026 / 0000 UTC | Valid till 09th February 2026 / 0000 UTC | Inputs from #IMD, New Delhi |
⏱️ Synoptic Features:
🔺Two Western Disturbances (WD) move in succession across J&K and adjoining Western Himalayas during the period from 30th January to 04th February 2026. Third WD from 06th to 08th February 2026. These WDs interact with southwesterly winds in low and mid levels bringing in moisture from the Arabian Sea over the plains of West, Northwest and Central parts of India. Sub Tropical Westerly Jet (STWJ) shifts southwards to 22°N Latitude during the forecast period. Deep amplitude troughs in Upper Tropospheric Westerlies at 200 hPa move eastwards across North and Central India between 31st January to 04th February and again for shorter duration between 6th to 8th February 2026.
🔺Two troughs of Low Pressure move across South Indian Peninsula during 31st January to 07th February 2026.
🌧️ Rainfall Outlook:
🔺North India: Fairly-widespread Rain/Snow over the Western Himalayas in association passage of WDs with scattered heavy spells over J&K, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh and adjoining northern plains upto Central parts of India between 31st January to 04th February 2026 and again between 06th to 08th February 2026.
🔺West, Central & Indo Gangetic Plains: Light shallow Fog/Smog and Mist activity over these regions mainly during morning hours of the forecast period with dense activity after the rains.
🔺South Peninsula: Scattered light/moderate rainfall will occur over Tamil Nadu and adjoining regions between 31st January to 8th February 2026.
🌡️ Temperature Trends: Temperatures rise over the Plains of entire Indian Subcontinent during the forecast period.
🔺 Minimum: 00-05°C over Punjab; 05-10°C Plains of North and Northwest India, 10-15°C over Plains of North, Northwest, West India, Indo Gangetic Plains and East India; 15-20°C Central India, 20-25°C reaching 30°C over Central & South India.
🔺 Maximum: 15-20°C over Plains of North and Northwest India. Rising to 20-25°C over Plains of North, Northwest, West India, Indo Gangetic Plains and East India; 25-30°C reaching 35°C over Central & South India.



Predicted pattern of rainfall / snowfall during the next ten days along with predicted pattern of Radiation Fog over the northern plains of India (in experimental mode) using the concept of Cross Over Temperature, Fog Stability Index and Modified Richardson Index have been discussed in the following post. Read the post for more details. Thanx and Regards.
https://lnkd.in/grsmyfpd